Archive for April, 2016

by Bent Flyvbjerg In this way, through ‘‘mechanisms of self-deception,” the Hiding Hand tricks decision makers into taking risks they would not otherwise have taken, which is good, according to Hirschman, because this teaches them (a) what the risks are, (b) that the risks are manageable, and (c) that it is therefore okay to be less […]

Originally posted on Revit beyond BIM:
More and more I’ve been challenged and inspired to find new ways to perform custom architectural analysis. In this post I want to share with you a short and simple (for once) Dynamo script that can be used to analyze the evacuation paths in your building design in Revit. The…

Presentación de Bilal Succar en el BIM Forum de Milán. 20 de Abril de 2016. OICE-BIM-Forum-BilalSuccar-20160420

Coup De Grâce


April 19, 2016 — by Patrik Schumacher The welfare state was pretty great while it lasted, wasn’t it? Yeah, those were the days, golden, even. But now, sad to say yet no point to lament times have changed; things are different. Planning used to be the way society would stay on track and moving forward. Today, for […]

Radical Pedagogies explores a series of intense but short-lived experiments in architectural education that profoundly transformed the landscape, methods and politics of the discipline in the post-WWII years. In fact, these experiments can be understood as radical architectural practices in their own right. Radical pedagogies shook foundations and disturbed assumptions rather than reinforce and disseminate […]

Uno de los principales intereses de investigación de 2005 fue indagar que a pesar de las grandes cantidades de fondos dirigidos a proyectos de infraestructura pública, hay muy poco en términos de evidencia empírica para demostrar lo bien que estas inversiones se han llevado adelante en términos de los costos, beneficios y riesgos económicos. Ante […]

Los JJOO de Beijing 2008 experimentaron un incremento de (4%) sobre el presupuesto inicial. Nada mal si tomamos como referencia  los JJOO de Barcelona 1992 (417%) o Montreal 1976 (796%). Más cerquita en el tiempo, los JJOO de Londres 2012 (112%)… un poquito más del doble si quieren verlo desde ese lado. Nobleza obliga, por debajo […]

The theoretical and methodological foundations of reference class forecasting were first described by Kahneman and Tversky (1979b) and later by Lovallo and Kahneman (2003). Reference class forecasting was originally developed to compensate for the type of cognitive bias that Kahneman and Tversky found in their work on decision making under uncertainty, which won Kahneman the […]

Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002, 2004, 2005) and Flyvbjerg and Cowi (2004) tested technical, psychological, and political-economic explanations for inaccuracy in forecasting. Technical explanations are most common in the literature and they explain inaccuracy in terms of unreliable or outdated data and the use of inappropriate forecasting models (Vanston and Vanston 2004: 33). However, when […]

Forecasts of cost, demand, and other impacts of planned projects have remained constantly and remarkably inaccurate for decades. No improvement in forecasting accuracy seems to have taken place, despite all claims of improved forecasting models, better data, etc. (Flyvbjerg, Bruzelius, and Rothengatter 2003; Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl 2002, 2005). For transportation infrastructure projects inaccuracy in […]