¿Porqué fracasan los proyectos?


El fracaso en porcentajes: 50% de los proyectos tecnológicos, 60% de los proyectos en generación de energía, 70% de las represas, 90% de los proyectos de transporte y 100% de las obras de infraestructura para los Juegos Olímpicos.


Our ongoing research has found there is a fundamental law in the thinking of many project professionals and academics. Solutions to fix project performance attempt to make our mental models of projects more lifelike. They try to capture more of the complexities, more of the detail. They aim to replicate the success of weather forecasters, yet they do not achieve the same results in terms of predictability and accuracy of outcomes.

This is because project, programme and portfolio leadership will not succeed by modelling complexity – they will succeed by understanding simplicity. We found that masterbuilders use simple heuristics and rigorous programmatics to succeed in project management.

First, leading psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has demonstrated that heuristics – the simple rules and intuitions that guide true experts – perform as well as, and often exceed, sophisticated complex models. Project leadership is therefore not about understanding and managing more complexity, more detail and more data.

Instead, following simple rules is likely to better contribute to success. These rules include: “Size is dangerous, physical and temporal – break it down where you can,” or “Don’t always do! Understand the value of not acting,” or “Think from right to left,” and many more.


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